坚冰之下，春水正生—

坚冰之下，春水正生——橡塑展浅析

2021-08-09

坚冰之下，春水正生——橡塑展浅析

伴随着国际橡胶工业的高速增长，橡塑展现已汇集展商700余家，展览面积达50,000平方米，展商来自世界近30个国家和地区，集橡胶机械设备、橡胶化学品、橡胶原材料、轮胎和非轮胎橡胶制品、橡胶循环利用为一体，是橡胶行业相关企业各个环节操作者的年度盛会。今天就由橡塑展小编给大家介绍橡胶，坚冰之下，春水正生的情况：

橡胶在整个能化板块中属于偏弱的品种。这种弱势主要是因为供过于求的大周期尚未逆转，而国内疫情后的修复反弹又告一段落。所以橡胶的破冰之旅异常艰难。

目前来看，2109合约整体上处于区间震荡，反弹乏力。如果后期拉升，多头可能在2201合约上发力。时间节奏上，2201的拉升可能在09合约交割完成后，配合后市可能存在的潜在反弹驱动。

总结来说，割季易跌难涨；交割后，反弹或可期。逻辑上橡胶次轮下跌驱动的原因是因为：国内进入旺产期供应上量，下游需求环比回落，国内去库略不及预期。下游轮胎开工率走低。前期对盘面有强支撑的重卡销量出现拐点。此外橡胶历史上的两轮上涨行情。两轮上涨的共性包括：下游汽车（特别是重卡）迎来政策红利，销量井喷。而第一轮上涨中还有产需出现缺口，供不应求以及三大主产国“限制出口”等政策加持，所以持续时间及涨幅较第二轮更甚。

目前盘面估值水平确实处于历史偏低位置，相较于其他化工品，橡胶的走势一直淡平。市场盼涨情绪比较高，产业内外资金对于橡胶的关注度也有所提升。橡胶从年内高点17335元/吨趋势性下跌近4个多月。从利空的角度来说，盘面已经基本反映了前期下跌的逻辑，从未来的绝对跌幅来看，空间有限。此外东南亚疫苗接种率偏低，疫情形势严峻。欧美疫情逐步受控，疫苗落地后，海外市场终端汽车、轮胎需求启动。欧美需求复苏分流了东南亚橡胶出口份额。另外青岛保税区区内外库存也呈现持续去化态势，这将为远期的行情做准备。

看完了以上小编从中国橡胶助剂网整理的内容，想必您一定很想去了解更多这方面的内容吧？请移步到橡塑展，2021年9月15-17日即将在上海新国际博览中心开展，更多精彩的资讯等你来看！橡塑展期待您的到来。

热门新闻

泰多举措应对橡胶市场震荡——第二十一届中国国际橡胶技术展览会

印度对涉华丁腈橡胶不实施反倾销措施——橡塑展

现场图片

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